| Executive Head of Lebanese Forces, Dr. Samir Geagea, said to Rose Youssef News Paper Saturday that the resignation of March 8 ministers did not come as a surprise, as it has always been one of the expected scenarios; however, what surprised him was the lack of responsibility among opposition leaders who only aimed at abolishing Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL).
Geagea described March 8 camp as an endless team which began in Tehran and ended beyond the borders of Beirut. "Personally I did not believe at first that a Lebanese had anything to do with the assassination of Martyr President Rafic Hariri," said Geagea, "but after the recent behavior of [March 8 team], I began to have doubts as nothing justifies this conduct and stance from the tribunal other than fear from something." Rumors have been spreading among the Lebanese like the plague that military turmoil was eminent. Geagea, however, had a more optimistic outlook on the security situation. Though some disturbances and riots, under the guise of daily-life demands, may take place, no full-fledged military action will happen. These riots will be instigated by Hezbollah and its allies, but will not go beyond scattered riots. President Michel Sleiman along with Army commander Jean Qahwaji were very clear that they will not allow the security situation to be shattered. "This is the first time in the history of Lebanon that political and military institutions are in accord not to allow any Lebanese or non-Lebanese side to manipulate domestic security. Moreover, there is Arab consensus, except for Syria, on the STL and stability in Lebanon, not to mention an international accord on these issues, including China, Russia, Turkey and Qatar. Consequently, Syria and its allies have little room to maneuver." Geagea went on to say that Hezbollah was an integral part of Wilayat al Fakih. "There is constant direct coordination between Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, and Hezbollah would never do anything, especially something as major as resigning from government, without consulting first with Tehran."
This brought to the spotlight the unusual alliance between MP Michel Aoun and Hezbollah, which Geagea described as "Zawaj Moutaa," a Shiite formula of temporary marriage between two people for the purpose of having sexual intercourse, after which the marriage would be dissolved without any strings attached. The LF leader elaborated that Aoun and Hezbollah were together out of convenience for the time being, as he wondered what common grounds brought them together, "Is it Wilayat al Fakih that brings them together? Or Hezbollah's view of the Islamic nation? Or the ideology of the Islamic revolution? Surely, none of these."
March 14 camp intended to deal constitutionally with the whole situation. This gave rise to another concern, that of returning to the dark era of political assassinations. "There is nothing to indicate that assassinations will restart, and I do not think we are at the verge of tragic or dramatic events." In the end, it all depended on Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. According to Geagea, Hezbollah has the power to start or stop sedition in the country at the time being.
Starting Monday, parliamentary deliberations will begin to assign a new Prime Minister. March 14 candidate was Saad Hariri, who enjoyed the majority of votes. However, Geagea did not expect a new government to be formed in the near future. "The lack of stability is not because of PM Hariri," he explained, "but due to the demeanor of the other team." Faced with a difficult choice of either to ruin domestic stability or give up the STL, the S-S initiative never stood a chance to succeed.